| Session Title: Fuzzy Set Analysis: A Method for Understanding Causality in Complex Systems |
| Demonstration Session 894 to be held in Centennial Section A on Saturday, Nov 8, 3:05 PM to 3:50 PM |
| Sponsored by the Systems in Evaluation TIG and the Quantitative Methods: Theory and Design TIG |
| Presenter(s): |
| Kurt Moore, Walter R McDonald and Associates Inc, kmoore@wrma.com |
| Abstract: Governments, programs, and organizations are systems consisting of numerous interacting elements. Evaluations often seek to understand the behaviors of these complex systems. A primary task for evaluation is to decipher the causal combinations that create particular outcomes. Many assessment tools deliver continuous data that can be analyzed statistically; however, there are other ways to describe the behaviors of systemic elements. Evaluators gather qualitative data and often use instruments that deliver non-ratio measurement scores. Informed analysts can code disparate types of data according to their degrees of membership in sets - for example, the set called 'this organization is currently in a highly chaotic state.' Combinations of these fuzzy sets are then analyzed with Boolean truth tables, allowing evaluators to discover the complex causal combinations that are necessary and/or sufficient to produce certain outcomes. This demonstration will explain these methodological tools, including software that facilitates analysis. |