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Session Title: Prospective Evaluation and Technology: New Developments and 21st Century Challenges
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Panel Session 652 to be held in Wekiwa 7 on Friday, Nov 13, 4:30 PM to 6:00 PM
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Sponsored by the Research, Technology, and Development Evaluation TIG
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| Chair(s): |
| Valerie J Caracelli, United States Government Accountability Office, caracelliv@gao.gov
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| Discussant(s):
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| Bhavya Lal, Science and Technology Policy Institute, blal@ida.org
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| George F Grob, Center for Public Program Evaluation, georgefgrob@cs.com
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| Abstract:
Federal efforts to incentivize the innovation process may help our nation achieve a wide variety of goals, such as stimulating the economy, enhancing energy independence, and improving highway safety. Additionally, because the pace of 21st-century technological change is accelerating at an ever-increasing rate, federal agencies may need to "exercise foresight" by anticipating and keeping pace with fast-changing technology-based trends. Three papers discuss (1) conceptual frameworks for building and evaluating a "science of science policy"; (2) a recent assessment of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's strategy for incentivizing new crash-avoidance technologies (based on an evaluation framework that links prospective evaluation to evidence issues); and (3) the need to anticipate or assess the unintended consequences of technology, using the example of fast-changing distractions caused by drivers' use of cell-phones with new and changing capabilities.
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What Might a Theory-Based Roadmap for Developing Innovation Policy Look Like?
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| Gretchen Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories, gbjorda@sandia.gov
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Prospective evaluation looks forward in time to answer questions such as "where shall we invest to have the most impact?" Given the uncertainty, time lags, and confounding events between a scientific discovery and a "product" in use that provides a benefit or solves a problem, this is a very difficult question. People see different parts of the elephant, and there is no agreement on the big picture. This paper will propose a logic model depiction of a roadmap for developing a Science of Science and Innovation Policy, a new National Science Foundation initiative in response to requests from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). This logic model is based on a December 2008 OSTP-sponsored workshop. It shows the non-linear science and technology process encompassed by micro and macro level inputs and incentives. Further, the paper will discuss a number of theory-based models that underlie this logic.
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Evaluating a Federal Effort to Incentives the Development of Technologies for Helping Drivers Avoid Highway Crashes
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| Nancy Donovan, United States Government Accountability Office, donovann@gao.gov
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In the area of highway safety, new technology-based trends combine (1) an evolving series of technology developments and new products with (2) consumer adoption and patterns of use. New crash avoidance technologies include electronic systems that assist drivers who may be, for example, drifting out of their lane or risking rear-end collisions. These technologies are projected to continue evolving past 2020 and thus present an opportunity to enhance future safety. However, there are uncertainties about the magnitude of safety improvement and the effectiveness of strategies to incentivize development. (One strategy involves testing new technologies and publicizing results to consumers.) Since no government-wide guidance exists on how federal agencies should address trends across a time horizon more than 5 years forward, GAO developed a framework highlighting activities related to (1) decision-making, (2) evidence development and (3) communication. The paper discusses this framework's evolution and its application to crash avoidance technologies.
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Evaluating An Agency's Response To A "High Clockspeed" Technology Trend With Unintended Consequences
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| Judith Droitcour, United States Government Accountability Office, droitcourj@gao.gov
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Although technological innovations improve our lives in various ways, they can have unintended, unforeseen consequences. The side-effects that accompany an evolving "high-clockspeed" technology-based trend may challenge the government's ability to respond in a timely way. One example is drivers' (including teen drivers') use of fast-evolving cell-phones with capabilities such as texting and searching the internet, which are quickly adopted by consumers. This paper discusses a recent evaluation of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's response to these new and fast-changing driver distractions. The evaluation, which was conducted by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, found that federal responses were constrained by a combination of (1) a perceived need to await the highest-quality evidence before responding, and (2) difficulties and lags in developing new kinds of quality evidence on an currently emerging and changing phenomenon. Additionally, there was a lack of agency communication with congressional policy-makers about this issue.
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