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Session Title: Evaluating Climate Change: International Perspectives, Methods, and Estimation Techniques
Multipaper Session 806 to be held in BONHAM E on Saturday, Nov 13, 10:55 AM to 12:25 PM
Sponsored by the Environmental Program Evaluation TIG
Chair(s):
Kara Crohn,  Research Into Action, kara.crohn@gmail.com
Is There An Impact of China’s Three Gorges Dam Project on Its Carbon Dioxide Emissions?
Presenter(s):
Jiaqi Liang, American University, jl3510a@student.american.edu
Abstract: This paper conducts an empirical program evaluation (from 1980-2007) gauging the impact of China’s Three Gorges Dam on its CO2 emission and thermal energy use, by testing the substitute effect of Three Gorges on electricity generation from thermal energy source, as well as the mitigating effect of Three Gorges on carbon dioxide emissions. Since only the carbon dioxide emission data is systematically compiled and accessible, the report focuses on this particular kind of greenhouse gas. The implementation of the project works as a natural experiment. In particular, a single interrupted time-series design applies. The primary findings of the study indicate that Three Gorges hydropower project falls short of policymakers’ expectation in terms of curbing the carbon dioxide emissions. The electricity contribution of Three Gorges is perplexed by the macro environmental factors, the overriding thermal energy structure, as well as the uneven energy supply and demand across regions.
Proposed Methodology to Evaluate Global Warming Impacts on a High Andean Ecosystem
Presenter(s):
Clemencia Vela, Independent Consultant, clemenvela@aol.com
Abstract: The present paper proposes a methodology to answer the question How is Global Warming Affecting a Paramo Ecosystem? It takes in consideration that temperatures decrease at higher altitudes, and that different species or communities are adapted to different microclimates. Thus, the hypothesis proposed is that global warming reflects in a temperature rise along the slope affecting the vegetation at different altitudes. The methodology applied was to choose a National Park where there is a cone shaped Volcano with no human disturbance, to establish 10*10 m. permanent sample plots, at different altitudes ranging from 4635 to 3861 meters above sea level (asl). Data would be collected yearly for at least ten years to compare species presence and its abundance measured as a means of percentage of ground cover, and record significant changes. In additions, data would be compared with data reported in the scarce bibliography, 24 -25 years ago.
Estimating Climate Change
Presenter(s):
Mende Davis, University of Arizona, mfd@u.arizona.edu
Owen Davis, University of Arizona, palynolo@geo.arizona.edu
Abstract: The estimation of climate change continues to come under rigorous scrutiny. This presentation provides a gentle introduction to the estimation of climate over time. Continuous historic records of temperature and rainfall have only been kept for 200 years. To estimate previous temperatures and rainfall over time, researchers must rely on proxy records such as ice cores, tree rings, corals, and other continuous deposits. To estimate past climate from a data source, multiple factors must be taken into account. The observed climate data will be composed of the climate signal, human impact, biases associated with the data source, other factors (solar variability, cyclic variations in the earth’s orbit), and random variations (error). We will demonstrate the estimation of past temperature and rainfall from one data source, taking multiple factors into account. The results from multiple data sources will provide the strongest estimates for past climates.

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