| Session Title: Simulation Model of Evaluation Biases Under Post Conflict Zones |
| Demonstration Session 778 to be held in REPUBLIC A on Saturday, Nov 13, 10:00 AM to 10:45 AM |
| Sponsored by the International and Cross-cultural Evaluation TIG |
| Presenter(s): |
| Mamadou Sidibe, International Relief & Development, mamadou.sidibe@gmail.com |
| Abstract: This demonstration explores how optimization tools and techniques can be used to help set up normative performance targets under post conflict settings, when uncertainty and high risk are part of program implementation strategies. It stems from the lessons learned when implementing the Community Stabilization Program (CSP) in Iraq by International Relief and Development (IRD) from May 2006 to September 2009. The CSP program targeted more than 15 Iraqi Governorates; it was designed to stabilize the country and set a path conducive to economic growth with justice and equity among Iraqis. The author uses a Mean Variance framework expressed as a Certainty Equivalent model to derive normative performance targets. These normative measures are compared to the actual program targets to determine evaluation biases in post conflict zones. Data from the Baghdad Province is used in the empirical estimates. |